i think this is worthy/important infra if done very well, and trust Elvis is thrilled by data & reports enough that he’ll do so.
COI: this is my partner’s project; am gifting through Manifund for a few reasons, centrally tax deductions.
3
Swarm incidents tracking platform
ProposalGrant
Closes November 12th, 2026$902raised
$500minimum funding
$14,800funding goal
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Project summary
Traces of AI swarms keep being found on the internet. This project will be tasked with cataloguing and contextualizing these incidents.
What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?
New events related to swarm activity keep being discovered, and it can be confusing to follow. The project currently aims to
Ingest new incident reports to feed the database.
Create visualizations that help follow the stories.
Catalogue individual events related to each incident, and create an archive for the traces left by the AIs in those events.
The pipeline that detects new incidents will be executed every day (ideally a few times per day) ingesting news stories, statements by the AI companies, evaluators, independent researchers and key X accounts. LLMs will sift through them, I will curate and edit those reports.
It will probably be good to have a comprehensive database collecting these events and responses by different entities. People will be able to point to swarmincidents.com when discussing the incidents, their causes, their blast radius and which parties were involved.
How will this funding be used?
The total is supposed to cover the project for 6 months:
$13,000: maintainer compensation at $500 a week.
$1,800: a monthly budget of $300 for cloud infra.
Cloud infrastructure costs will cover:
API costs (LLM calls, X API) for ingesting new incidents.
Storage, including the event archive.
The domain and hosting.
The maintainer's work will consist of:
Initial development, a 1-4 weeks sprint for
Setting up and tweaking the pipeline that ingests new incidents,
Cataloguing and archiving individual events,
Creating visualizations for events,
Creating feeds for users to keep track of new developments,
Building up expertise and reviewing LLM-assisted research.
Typical week past that, ~5 hours a week for
Reviewing and curating new findings,
Basic maintenance.
Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?
Elvis Sikora (personal website).
I am a Global Expert Fellow at Mox, where I am researching forecasting and decision-making. I enjoy pointing AI at data and coming up with a coherent story that makes sense of a messy domain. E.g., see my recent Substack post on Kalshi's markets.
In the past, I have worked as a data analyst and AI engineer. One of my responsibilities in my previous job was to make chatbot behavior and failure modes understandable through data visualization.
What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?
Big changes in the number of swarm incidents:
If they stop happening, the project loses its importance.
If they increase a lot, more dakka would be necessary.
Someone else does it better, or maybe AI gets too good and becomes able to one-shot everything.
How much money have you raised in the last 12 months, and from where?
I have not raised any money yet.