Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups)

Project summary

The Forecasting Meetup Network will provide infrastructure for building the forecasting community, starting with 4 IRL monthly forecasting meetups in Washington, DC from September to December 2024. Activities will primarily include mingling, networking, and talking shop amongst attendees, giving them a chance to meet like-minded people, thereby creating stronger connections and dedication to the art and science of forecasting. Future events may involve live forecasting (for example, election night watch parties, Oscars watch parties, etc), forecasting games, speakers, or similar.

Target audiences include: prediction market traders (i.e. users of platforms like Manifold, Good Judgment Open, and Metaculus), forecasting hobbyists, political gamblers (i.e. users of platforms like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), consumers of forecasting and related content (i.e. consumers of content from StarSpangledGamblers, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, and other Riverians), effective altruists, rationalists, sports bettors (i.e. users of platforms like FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), etc.

Other interested audiences may include: academics interested in forecasting / decision-making / behavioral science / risk, financial services professionals (financial traders, quants, etc), regulators / journalists / other parties interested in the regulation of prediction market trading and related activities, political operatives and other professionals in position of decision-making authority about future events, etc.

What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?

The mission of the Forecasting Meetup Network is to positively influence the future by improving humanity’s ability to predict the future.

Our secret master plan to achieve this mission:

Organize local forecasting meetups of forecasters, gamblers, and anyone else interested in predicting the future in Washington, DC.
Expand meetups to other cities in the United States.
Expand meetups to other cities and localities across the globe.
In doing so, popularize and legitimize the practice of forecasting to predict the future.
In doing so, influence key individuals and institutions best positioned to solve the most important problems in the world to use forecasting to improve their ability to predict the future.
In doing so, positively influence the future of humanity.

The scope of this particular EA Community Choice funding request is specifically for point #1 above, organizing 4 forecasting meetups in Washington, DC from September - December 2024. Our goal is to have an average of 20 attendees across these first 4 meetups.

How will this funding be used?

This funding will be used to cover $500 (per meetup) worth of costs of organizing a pilot series of monthly meetups in Washington, DC from September through December 2024 (4 meetups for a total funding request of $2,000). Examples of costs to be covered include (in order of priority):

Meetup supplies like name tags, signs, etc to increase the quality of each meetup.
Rental/reservation fees of centrally-located semi-private or private spaces to maximize the ease of conversations between attendees.
Sponsored food and beverage to increase the appeal of each event, leading to higher attendance.

Absent funding, at least one meetup in September 2024 will still take place, with a potential to continue monthly, but in the public space of a venue like a bar or restaurant where it may be more difficult to identify and converse with other attendees, and where attendees would have to cover their own costs for food and beverage as desired.

Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?

David Glidden is a forecasting enthusiast, effective altruist, and operations management professional at a technology consulting firm. He has volunteered at Effective Altruism Global and has organized meetups professionally as an employee for a cofounder matchmaking startup. He is a prediction market trader and creator on Manifold, a forecaster on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open, and a trader on PredictIt. He lives in Washington, DC.

Pratik Chougule consults professionally on political prediction markets and is the co-founder and executive director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, an advocacy organization that aims to liberalize regulations on political betting in order to serve the public interest. He is also the host of the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast, where he shares his commentary and analysis on political betting with experts in the prediction market community. He is one of the most connected individuals in the prediction market and political gambling communities, frequently sought out by journalists to understand the space. He lives in Arlington, VA.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?

Most likely causes of this project failing:

Lack of bandwidth from organizers and/or scheduling issues - both David and Pratik have very young children and day jobs. Their passion for the forecasting community should ensure prioritization of the Washington, DC pilot initiative, but if the success of these meetups require significant personal sacrifices, they may not end up organizing all 4 meetups or continue beyond the initial pilot. This is especially true if the lack of funding results in a suboptimal experience for attendees that results in low turnout that would be discouraging to continue the series. There is also the risk that they might host 4 meetups but not all will occur monthly/before the end of 2024 due to scheduling and/or bandwidth issues.
Lack of attendance - there may be limited attendance if David and Pratik are ineffective at communicating/marketing to the audiences who would be interested in such a meetup, or there may simply not be much interest in such an event.
Lack of capable operational/volunteer support - while not covered by this initial request for funding, expansion to other cities will require volunteer organizers residing in those cities to organize meetups.

Outcomes if this project fails:

The forecasting community will remain fragmented - those interested in forecasting will instead continue finding community and loyalty in existing forecasting-related organizations, primarily around prediction market platforms like Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi or college groups like Optic.

What other funding are you or your project getting?

None at this time, though Pratik is considering contributing funds from his organization, the Coalition for Political Forecasting, though that would likely result in the meetup being more focused on political forecasting with less of a direct EA focus.