Dear Investors,
I hope this message finds you well. It has been an eventful few months and I am eager to share the progress I've made since our last communication. My project of creating subsidized real money prediction markets on high impact topics is gaining traction, marked by the successful launch of our first market. As we move forward, I am excited to launch new markets and continue to push the envelope in forecasting high-impact topics. Below are a few exciting updates I have to share with you.
Partnering with Polymarket
I have been working closely with the Polymarket team to define their requirements for running markets. Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market platform and an ideal partner for this venture. Their request is that I only run markets which will be resolved by the end of the year, due to the possibility of technical updates to their platform and market design in the future. While this places some constraints on the type of markets I will be able to run, I understand the need to adjust to these requirements and see it as an opportunity to focus on creating high-impact markets with shorter time horizons.
Partnering with Nuño Sempere
Adhering to Polymarket's legal stipulations, it is necessary to deploy all liquidity via a non-American, as Americans face legal restrictions trading on their platform. To meet this requirement, I am partnering with Nuño Sempere. Based in Spain, Nuño is a highly regarded figure in the forecasting community, known for his creation of "Metaforecast," a popular forecasting aggregation site, and his former role writing the Forecasting Newsletter.
Nuño has also been critical to the enhancement and deployment of the Automated Market Maker (AMM) trading bot. Polymarket provided the foundational code for the AMM. With Nuño's technical prowess, we modified the AMM to handle multiple markets simultaneously and ensured its continuous operation by hosting it on a server. Prior to its full deployment, we performed extensive testing to certify its functionality, stability, and overall readiness for a live market environment.
I am excited about this strategic collaboration and have immense confidence in the unique contributions Nuño will bring to our venture. In recognition of his value and commitment to the project, I have allocated 10% equity to Nuño, which will be taken from my personal equity stake. This decision is driven by my belief that Nuño adds significant value to this project, and he will be instrumental to its long term success.
First Market Launch
On June 7th, I launched the first market: "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before Nov 1?" This market has already generated over $8,000 in volume as of June 11th, a promising start that signifies the potential of this project. This market will prove invaluable in forecasting the likelihood of success of Ukraine's recently launched counter-offensive.
Future Markets
As I continue to make progress, I am in discussions with members of the forecasting community to develop more questions focused on key topics including AI progress, AI regulation, nuclear proliferation, and geopolitics. Once these markets are approved by the Polymarket team, I will be launching them as well.
As always, I am grateful for your investment and belief in my project. Your support is instrumental in helping me realize my goal of pushing the boundaries of prediction markets. I will continue to provide you with regular updates as I progress further.
If you have any questions or feedback, please do not hesitate to reach out to me at ezra.brodey1@gmail.com. I value your input and am always looking to improve.
Thank you again for your support and trust in me.
Best Regards,
Ezra Brodey