Reports

1. Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS),  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11906.96969.

2. Artificial intelligence risk management in Spain, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18451.86562.

3. Proposal for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28217.75365.

4. Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25294.02886.

Papers 

1. Resilient food solutions to avoid mass starvation during a nuclear winter in Argentina, REDER Journal, Accepted, pending publication.

2. Systematic review of taxonomies of risks associated with artificial intelligence, Analecta Política https://doi.org/10.18566/apolit.v14n26.a08

3. The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI?, Journal IberamIA,  https://doi.org/10.4114/intartif.vol27iss73pp55-64

4. Operationalizing AI Global Governance Democratization, submitted to call for papers of Office of the Envoy of the Secretary General for Technology, Non-public document.

Policy brief and work documents

1. RCG Position paper: AI Act trilogue.

2. Operationalising the definition of highly capable AI.

3. PNRRD Argentina 2024-2030 chapter proposal “Scenarios for Abrupt Reduction of Solar Light”, *Published as an internal government document.

Collaborations

1. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 1: “To Think and Act for Future Generations”.

2. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 2: “Strengthening the International Response to Complex Global Shocks – An Emergency Platform” .

3. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 5: A Global Digital Compact — an Open, Free and Secure Digital Future for All.

4. [EPOCH]  Paper “AI capabilities can be significantly improved without expensive retraining”, published in arXiv.

Outreach

Web articles

1. Global catastrophic risks law approved in the United States.

2. Proposals for the AI Regulatory Sandbox in Spain.

3. A survey of concrete risks derived from Artificial Intelligence.

4. Spanish translation of “How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism's Limited Role”.

5. Biosafety in BSL-3, BSL-3+ and BSL-4 Laboratories: Mapping and Recommendations for Latin America.

Video

1. Presentation Food Security in Argentina in the event of an ASRS.

2. Presentation  Risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.

3. Presentation Detection and prevention of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala.

Infographics

1. Infographics of the Report food security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Reduction of Sunlight Scenario (ASRS).

2. Infographics report risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.

3. Infographics: report Proposals for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in Guatemala.

4. Infographics report: Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management.

Events

1. EAGx Berlín, Presentation “Regional Diversity in Global Catastrophic Risk and AI risk Management”, Guillem Bas.

2. CTS Ecuador, Presentation “Classification and analysis of risks derived from artificial intelligence” Monica Ulloa.

3. Workshop “Pluralism in Existential Risk Studies”, Oxford, Monica Ulloa.

4. Adevinta Spain Meetup, Barcelona, Presentation “AI Governance: Opportunities and Challenges”, Guillem Bas.

5. ESCT Colloquium, Colombia: “Measuring and valuing disasters: a path towards global resilience”, Mónica Ulloa.

Awards

1. Santander–CIDOB 35 under 35 list, Guillem Bas.
   

What are your next steps?

This year we will be focused on AI and the generation of risk register exercises for this area and other GCRs.

Is there anything others could help you with?

We invite you to send any questions and/or requests to info@orcg.info. You can contribute to the mitigation of Global Catastrophic Risks by donating.

Thank you very much Nuño for your contribution, we hope to continue improving the prioritization and management of GCRs in Spanish-speaking countries and we will be in contact to update you with promising advances in our work.

Hello Joel,
Thank you for taking the time to read our proposal, here our answers:

1- The most important paths are:

• Continue with the strategic partnership and collaborations. This includes working with different stakeholders in Spanish-speaking countries to introduce GCR areas in national risk plans, as has been done with Argentina, and continuing with other partnerships with institutions such as ALLFED, Simon Institute, etc.

• Seize the opportunity: Being GCR a neglected area, all the reports, articles, and other academic production in Spanish-speaking and with an emphasis on Latin America have a high probability of impact and reception, as we have verified in the development of our projects.

• Betting on our staff training: Our team comes from different academic areas and various countries such as Spain, Mexico, and Colombia. We have different approaches that have served the development of projects with an interdisciplinary perspective and have facilitated engagement with stakeholders. This has been particularly important when engaging with stakeholders keen on seeing views from the Global South, such as the UN.

• Evidence-Based Decision Making: With our publications and projects under development, we have detected that some areas are more promising in certain countries than others. We plan to use this knowledge to tailor our outreach strategies efficiently.

Our 95th-percentile version looks like

• Integrate the most promising themes of our four main areas into the Spanish-speaking countries in which the best opportunities are detected or in the process of renewing national risk management plans.

• Collaborations and partnerships flourish, resulting in an expansive network of allies who share our vision and contribute to our collective success.

• We've achieved remarkable growth and successful financial stability that will allow us to continue our work long-term, improve the team's and interested people's training, and develop workshops in different countries to achieve significant stakeholder acceptance.

• In this version, we have reached the Spanish-speaking community that works in risk management and the community, making them aware of the importance of longtermism and global catastrophic risks.

2.

Indeed, Jaime and Juan actively participate in the staff mentoring process, along with our advisers. We also have developed internal training modules, which could become training material for internal and external mentoring. So far, our training has successfully taken our staff from having little exposure to Global Catastrophic Risk studies to actively contributing to high-quality reports in a couple of months. We have little capacity to expand and grow because Jaime and Juan's time is limited, but this will remain a pillar of our organization.

3.

If we were to emphasize mentorship and movement-building as our primary goals, it could lead to significant transformations in how we operate. Here are some specific ways this could manifest:

• Structured Mentorship Programs: Our ongoing staff training has resulted in well-structured training modules endorsed by experts. These modules, along with recommended reading materials and resources from EA communities, 80000 hours, and others, could serve as the foundation for a mentorship program.

• Leadership Development and Talent Identification: Through previous recruitment processes, we've identified promising individuals within the Spanish-speaking effective altruism community. These individuals show a keen interest in advancing and leading in this field. Notably, our essay contest has been successful in spotting emerging talent.

• Sharing Resources Platform: Our website boasts the largest collection of Spanish articles on global catastrophic risks, and we're committed to expanding this repository. This rich content will undoubtedly be a valuable resource for learners from various backgrounds.

• Engaging the Community: We've successfully hosted events to introduce our reports and intend to continue doing so. Additionally, we're considering establishing platforms for talks at local universities and facilitating workshops for community participation.

• Collaborative Initiatives: Collaborative projects have proven effective in enhancing staff training. Working with experts from organizations like ALLFED and EPOCH has resulted in products like the ASRS and AI reports. Furthermore, we've contributed to a United Nations policy brief in collaboration with the Simon Institute.

It's important to note that we already play a pivotal role within our community. As the sole organization dedicated to nurturing experts in global catastrophic risks within the Spanish-speaking community, our impact can have a cascading effect because other people learn about the topic through our reports and receive mentorship from the experts we are forming.

It's unclear whether we should prioritize more community building over other work. We're open to considering the idea of securing additional resources to expand our efforts and launch more mentorship-focused programs.

4.

We are currently drafting a chapter on the ASRS for inclusion in Argentina's National Risk Reduction Plan for the period 2024-2030. Our objective is to contribute to more national plans across various Latin American countries, recognizing the unique opportunity to make a substantial impact. Given the region's geographical characteristics, Argentina and its neighboring countries hold pivotal roles in ensuring food security during scenarios such as nuclear winter and related scenarios.

Simultaneously, Spain is currently presiding over the European Council until the end of the year. We have established connections with an expert who will oversee discussions on regulating foundation models within the context of the EU AI Act in September. Additionally, we are in contact with a member of the European Parliament. Our intention is to maintain these connections and ensure that both individuals are well-informed about the latest standards in AI governance.

Shifting our focus to biological risks, we are working on a report for Guatemala. This aims to underscore the importance of monitoring emerging infectious diseases. The Latin American region holds significant potential for the emergence of epidemiological hotspots. Through this report, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of proactive measures in this regard.

Remain at your disposal for any further inquiries.