Executive summary

2024 has been a year of significant growth and consolidation for Observatorio de Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (ORCG), marked by impactful advancements across our four core workstreams. We've expanded our research initiatives and strengthened international collaborations, solidifying our role as a leading voice in understanding and mitigating catastrophic risks.

From the outset, ORCG has championed proactive and collaborative approaches to navigating the complex challenges of potential global catastrophes. This commitment fueled a diverse range of activities in 2024, with highlights including:

• Artificial Intelligence: We continued our work on the implementation of the EU AI Act, including by participating in the drawing-up of the GPAI Code of Practice, supported by resources from Longview Philanthropy. We also formulated the AI Risk Explorer (AIRE), securing funding from Open Philanthropy. Finally, we published the report “Compute for Good: The Potential of European Supercomputers for AI Research and Development”.

• Pandemic Preparedness: We led a regional mapping effort to assess biosafety and biosecurity needs in Latin America. This resulted in research notes and a report that will be included in the Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety, helping to redirect efforts and resources for effective pandemic management in Latin America.

• Resilience to Global Catastrophic Food Failure: We generated a well-received policy brief, "Agricultural Resilience in Latin America: Facing Scenarios of Abrupt Reduction of Sunlight (ASRS)." We are actively working to integrate its recommendations into the plans of various South American governments.

• Improvement in Risk Management Systems: We published a new edition of our flagship report, Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks, featuring a prologue by former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo, a member of The Elders. This generated significant media attention for ORCG. We are also developing a handbook for implementing the OECD's framework on emerging critical risks.

These endeavors have not only deepened our understanding of global risks but also fostered crucial partnerships with organizations and experts worldwide. We've collaborated with leading institutions and initiatives such as ALLFED, Global Shield, CSER, GCRI, CLTR, and AMexBio. Furthermore, by participating in several working groups of the EU GPAI Code of Practice, we've engaged with several civil society organizations in the field of AI safety and governance. Our work has also involved stakeholder engagement with OECD, EuroHPC, OEI, AESIA, IMSS, UNAM, and UANL. We are working on defining collaborative projects across our workstreams with some of these institutions, starting in 2025.  We invite you to stay tuned for our updates next year.

In this recap, we'll delve into the key activities and accomplishments that have shaped ORCG's 2024 journey. We'll explore the impact of our research, the progress made in our key programs, and the valuable connections we've forged. Join us as we review our milestones—especially our key products—that have defined this chapter in our ongoing commitment to safeguarding humanity's future.

Looking ahead, securing comprehensive funding remains a critical challenge. While our AI initiatives are funded through 2025, other vital areas face resource limitations that could jeopardize our continued progress. We invite you to partner with us by donating to help sustain our work across all areas of our mission.

Products 

Reports

• New Prologue for the Report "Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks: Transforming Risk Management" Written by Elders Member and Former President Ernesto Zedillo: This updated report, with a foreword by a respected global leader, provides a comprehensive analysis of global catastrophic risks affecting Latin America and proposes strategies for enhanced risk management.

• “Compute for Good: The Potential of European Supercomputers for AI Research and Development”: This report provides a technical analysis of European public compute and recommends dedicating it to broadly beneficial AI applications, AI safety research, model evaluations, and piloting a future ‘CERN for AI’.

• “Mapping Regional Needs in Biosafety, Biosecurity, and Public Health” This project mapped biosafety, biosecurity, and public health needs in Latin America. Surveys of professionals in 9 countries revealed top priorities: training programs and stronger regulatory frameworks. Key challenges include a lack of funding, government support, and ongoing training.  Recommendations focus on competency-based training, international collaboration, and increased investment in biosafety and biosecurity infrastructure.

ORCG in press

• How to avoid the next global catastrophe, Opinion article written for the Planeta Futuro section of major Spanish newspaper El País, which highlights that governments and multilateral organizations must prepare for possible future pandemics or monitor potential AI risks, among other GCRs.

• 'Leaders should treat global catastrophic risks as a priority': Here's what countries would need to do to avoid the next global disaster, Article resulting from an interview for major Colombian newspaper El Tiempo, where our director Juan Garcia refers to potential upcoming crises (such as from AI, pandemics, and nuclear weapons) and the importance of being prepared for them.

• Latin America must prioritize global catastrophic risks, report warns, Review prepared by journalists from the newspaper El Heraldo based on our report “Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks” with its new prologue.

• Experts urge not to minimize global catastrophic risks, Note about a global catastrophic risks colloquium at the top Latin America university UNAM, in which our director and some team members participated.

Academic papers

• The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI? This paper, published in IberamIA journal, examines the EU AI Act, the first attempt to regulate frontier models. It concludes the Parliament’s draft was a good step toward adequately addressing the risks posed by these models, though some of its provisions were insufficiently defined in some areas and lacking in others. The final version of the Act improved in many of the aspects outlined.

• "Systematic Review of Risk Taxonomies Associated with Artificial Intelligence": This article systematically reviewed 36 studies on AI risks, resulting in a taxonomy of threats and risk vectors. Our research found a need to consider emerging risks, bridge gaps between present and future harms, and further explore the potential pathways to an AI catastrophe

• "Resilient Food Solutions to Avoid Mass Starvation During a Nuclear Winter in Argentina": This research explores potential food sources and production methods that could help ensure food security in Argentina during a nuclear winter scenario, describing how timely food system adaptation could flip a situation of national famine to a situation in which the country could not only feed itself but also continue to make significant exports to neighbors.

• “The Securitization of Artificial Intelligence: An Analysis of its Drivers and Consequences”; submitted to Revista de Estudios Sociales by Universidad de los Andes. This article analyzes how the US is framing AI as a national security issue, revealing tensions between politicization and securitization, national and global security concerns, and threat-based versus risk-based approaches. It argues that effective AI governance requires balancing national interests with global security, favoring a risk-based approach that acknowledges uncertainties and promotes multilateral solutions instead of focusing solely on threats and nationalistic competition.

• “Training and Education: What are the essential elements necessary for biosafety and biosecurity training programs for researchers and professionals?”, in submission process. To address the needs and challenges identified by Latin American researchers and professionals, effective biosafety and biosecurity training programs must prioritize formalized competency-based training, continuous professional development, accessibility, practical application, and intersectoral collaboration.  By incorporating these elements, training programs can empower individuals to mitigate biological risks, foster responsible conduct, and strengthen regional biosecurity and public health.

Policy Brief

• Policy Recommendation: "Agricultural Resilience in Latin America: Facing Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios": This policy brief outlines strategies for enhancing agricultural resilience in Latin America to mitigate the impacts of abrupt sunlight reduction events, describing how timely food system adaptation could avert famine for hundreds of millions in these scenarios.

Research notes

• Retrospective of our contribution to the European Union AI Act: This analysis details ORCG's involvement in shaping the EU's landmark legislation on AI.

• Addressing the Challenges of Advanced AI: Review of Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress: This review examines key strategies for mitigating the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems, including AI oversight, interpretability, evaluations of dangerous capabilities, and societal resilience interventions.

• Infographics: European Union Artificial Intelligence Act: These infographics provide a clear and accessible overview of the EU's AI Act, focusing on provisions regarding general-purpose AI models.

• Progress in the Regulation of Artificial Intelligence in Latin America: This analysis provides an update on AI governance developments in Latin America, highlighting key trends (Risk-based approach and international influence) and challenges (Implementing the Risk-based Approach and Creating Strong Institutions)

• "Research Priorities According to the World Health Organization (WHO) for Intelligence on Pandemics, Epidemics, and Bacterial Pathogens": This report identifies key research areas that can inform more effective pandemic preparedness and response strategies, such as epidemiological and pathogen research.

• "Exploration of the New North American Trade Agreement: Focus on Preparing for Future Pandemics in Mexico": This article examines the trade agreement's implications for pandemic preparedness in Mexico, offering valuable insights for regional cooperation. This includes facilitating information sharing, joint research and development, and harmonization of regulations.

• "The Urgency of Improving Pandemic Surveillance and Response": This concise analysis highlights the need for strengthened global systems for detecting and responding to emerging infectious disease threats. In conclusion, pandemic preparedness requires a comprehensive strategy that combines advanced technologies, strengthened public health infrastructure, and international collaboration.

• “On the global importance of Latin America in AI governance”: This article argues Latin America could gain global importance in AI governance since it might (1) attract compute providers, (2) leverage its strong diplomatic tradition, (3) experience the emergence of societal-scale risks, (4) offer a strong pool of technical talent, and (5) enact impactful regulation. Each element opens up several possible implications and interventions to increase Latin America’s contribution to safe and beneficial AI. 

Events presence

• EAGx LatAm 2024,

  • Presentation:  “Global Catastrophic Risk Governance in Latin America: The Case of ORCG”

  • Workshop: “Tabletop Exercise: Food security in Argentina in an abrupt reduction in sunlight scenario (ASRS)”

• Summit on Existential Security

  • Lightning talk: “5 Lessons from the EU AI Act”

• EA Global Bay Area 2024 (Global Catastrophic Risks)

• Made in Europe: Generating the ecosystem of trustworthy AI innovation (Future of Life Institute)

• Social Impact of AI (TELSEC4TAI)

• EAG London 2024

  • Panel: The Role of the Global South in Global Catastrophic Risk

• Biosafety Beyond Borders: Unifying Biosafety and Biosecurity” (SBA-AMEXBIO)

• Webinar “Innovation Beyond Frontiers” of Chemistry Institute of  UNAM, “Retrospective analysis of the response to COVID-19 and preparedness for future emergencies”

• Cambridge Conference on Global Catastrophic Risk 2024

  • Presentation: “Latin America's role in Global Catastrophic Risk management: insights, opportunities, and challenges”

  • Poster:  “A Framework for a Forecasting-Based AI Risk Assessment”

• European Digital Policy: where are we and where are we going? (CIDOB-Santander Future Leaders Forum)

• Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety" Buenos Aires.

Join us in building a safer and more resilient future. Your contribution to ORCG will help us address the full spectrum of global catastrophic risks and ensure that humanity is prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.

Donate to ORCG today and help us protect humanity's future. Read here about our current plans.   

In addition to financial contributions, you can support ORCG by:

• Spreading the word: Share this Recap and our website (https://orcg.info) with your networks.

• If you are an expert interested in our work: you can contribute by sending suggestions, providing feedback, and sharing academic and funding opportunities with us, among others (info@orcg.info).

• Connecting us with potential partners: Introduce us to individuals or organizations who can support our work.

Together, we can build a safer future for all.

2024: a year of consolidation for ORCG

Executive summary

2024 has been a year of significant growth and consolidation for Observatorio de Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (ORCG), marked by impactful advancements across our four core workstreams. We've expanded our research initiatives and strengthened international collaborations, solidifying our role as a leading voice in understanding and mitigating catastrophic risks.

From the outset, ORCG has championed proactive and collaborative approaches to navigating the complex challenges of potential global catastrophes. This commitment fueled a diverse range of activities in 2024, with highlights including:

• Artificial Intelligence: We continued our work on the implementation of the EU AI Act, including by participating in the drawing-up of the GPAI Code of Practice, supported by resources from Longview Philanthropy. We also formulated the AI Risk Explorer (AIRE), securing funding from Open Philanthropy. Finally, we published the report “Compute for Good: The Potential of European Supercomputers for AI Research and Development”.

• Pandemic Preparedness: We led a regional mapping effort to assess biosafety and biosecurity needs in Latin America. This resulted in research notes and a report that will be included in the Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety, helping to redirect efforts and resources for effective pandemic management in Latin America.

• Resilience to Global Catastrophic Food Failure: We generated a well-received policy brief, "Agricultural Resilience in Latin America: Facing Scenarios of Abrupt Reduction of Sunlight (ASRS)." We are actively working to integrate its recommendations into the plans of various South American governments.

• Improvement in Risk Management Systems: We published a new edition of our flagship report, Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks, featuring a prologue by former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo, a member of The Elders. This generated significant media attention for ORCG. We are also developing a handbook for implementing the OECD's framework on emerging critical risks.

These endeavors have not only deepened our understanding of global risks but also fostered crucial partnerships with organizations and experts worldwide. We've collaborated with leading institutions and initiatives such as ALLFED, Global Shield, CSER, GCRI, CLTR, and AMexBio. Furthermore, by participating in several working groups of the EU GPAI Code of Practice, we've engaged with several civil society organizations in the field of AI safety and governance. Our work has also involved stakeholder engagement with OECD, EuroHPC, OEI, AESIA, IMSS, UNAM, and UANL. We are working on defining collaborative projects across our workstreams with some of these institutions, starting in 2025.  We invite you to stay tuned for our updates next year.

In this recap, we'll delve into the key activities and accomplishments that have shaped ORCG's 2024 journey. We'll explore the impact of our research, the progress made in our key programs, and the valuable connections we've forged. Join us as we review our milestones—especially our key products—that have defined this chapter in our ongoing commitment to safeguarding humanity's future.

Looking ahead, securing comprehensive funding remains a critical challenge. While our AI initiatives are funded through 2025, other vital areas face resource limitations that could jeopardize our continued progress. We invite you to partner with us by donating to help sustain our work across all areas of our mission.

Products 

Reports

• New Prologue for the Report "Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks: Transforming Risk Management" Written by Elders Member and Former President Ernesto Zedillo: This updated report, with a foreword by a respected global leader, provides a comprehensive analysis of global catastrophic risks affecting Latin America and proposes strategies for enhanced risk management.

• “Compute for Good: The Potential of European Supercomputers for AI Research and Development”: This report provides a technical analysis of European public compute and recommends dedicating it to broadly beneficial AI applications, AI safety research, model evaluations, and piloting a future ‘CERN for AI’.

• “Mapping Regional Needs in Biosafety, Biosecurity, and Public Health” This project mapped biosafety, biosecurity, and public health needs in Latin America. Surveys of professionals in 9 countries revealed top priorities: training programs and stronger regulatory frameworks. Key challenges include a lack of funding, government support, and ongoing training.  Recommendations focus on competency-based training, international collaboration, and increased investment in biosafety and biosecurity infrastructure.

  ORCG in press

  • How to avoid the next global catastrophe, Opinion article written for the Planeta Futuro section of major Spanish newspaper El País, which highlights that governments and multilateral organizations must prepare for possible future pandemics or monitor potential AI risks, among other GCRs.

  • 'Leaders should treat global catastrophic risks as a priority': Here's what countries would need to do to avoid the next global disaster, Article resulting from an interview for major Colombian newspaper El Tiempo, where our director Juan Garcia refers to potential upcoming crises (such as from AI, pandemics, and nuclear weapons) and the importance of being prepared for them.

  • Latin America must prioritize global catastrophic risks, report warns, Review prepared by journalists from the newspaper El Heraldo based on our report “Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks” with its new prologue.

  • Experts urge not to minimize global catastrophic risks, Note about a global catastrophic risks colloquium at the top Latin America university UNAM, in which our director and some team members participated.

  Academic papers

  • The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI? This paper, published in IberamIA journal, examines the EU AI Act, the first attempt to regulate frontier models. It concludes the Parliament’s draft was a good step toward adequately addressing the risks posed by these models, though some of its provisions were insufficiently defined in some areas and lacking in others. The final version of the Act improved in many of the aspects outlined.

  • "Systematic Review of Risk Taxonomies Associated with Artificial Intelligence": This article systematically reviewed 36 studies on AI risks, resulting in a taxonomy of threats and risk vectors. Our research found a need to consider emerging risks, bridge gaps between present and future harms, and further explore the potential pathways to an AI catastrophe

  • "Resilient Food Solutions to Avoid Mass Starvation During a Nuclear Winter in Argentina": This research explores potential food sources and production methods that could help ensure food security in Argentina during a nuclear winter scenario, describing how timely food system adaptation could flip a situation of national famine to a situation in which the country could not only feed itself but also continue to make significant exports to neighbors.

  • “The Securitization of Artificial Intelligence: An Analysis of its Drivers and Consequences”; submitted to Revista de Estudios Sociales by Universidad de los Andes. This article analyzes how the US is framing AI as a national security issue, revealing tensions between politicization and securitization, national and global security concerns, and threat-based versus risk-based approaches. It argues that effective AI governance requires balancing national interests with global security, favoring a risk-based approach that acknowledges uncertainties and promotes multilateral solutions instead of focusing solely on threats and nationalistic competition.

  • “Training and Education: What are the essential elements necessary for biosafety and biosecurity training programs for researchers and professionals?”, in submission process. To address the needs and challenges identified by Latin American researchers and professionals, effective biosafety and biosecurity training programs must prioritize formalized competency-based training, continuous professional development, accessibility, practical application, and intersectoral collaboration.  By incorporating these elements, training programs can empower individuals to mitigate biological risks, foster responsible conduct, and strengthen regional biosecurity and public health.

  Policy Brief

  • Policy Recommendation: "Agricultural Resilience in Latin America: Facing Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios": This policy brief outlines strategies for enhancing agricultural resilience in Latin America to mitigate the impacts of abrupt sunlight reduction events, describing how timely food system adaptation could avert famine for hundreds of millions in these scenarios.

  Research notes

  • Retrospective of our contribution to the European Union AI Act: This analysis details ORCG's involvement in shaping the EU's landmark legislation on AI.

  • Addressing the Challenges of Advanced AI: Review of Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress: This review examines key strategies for mitigating the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems, including AI oversight, interpretability, evaluations of dangerous capabilities, and societal resilience interventions.

  • Infographics: European Union Artificial Intelligence Act: These infographics provide a clear and accessible overview of the EU's AI Act, focusing on provisions regarding general-purpose AI models.

  • Progress in the Regulation of Artificial Intelligence in Latin America: This analysis provides an update on AI governance developments in Latin America, highlighting key trends (Risk-based approach and international influence) and challenges (Implementing the Risk-based Approach and Creating Strong Institutions)

  • "Research Priorities According to the World Health Organization (WHO) for Intelligence on Pandemics, Epidemics, and Bacterial Pathogens": This report identifies key research areas that can inform more effective pandemic preparedness and response strategies, such as epidemiological and pathogen research.

  • "Exploration of the New North American Trade Agreement: Focus on Preparing for Future Pandemics in Mexico": This article examines the trade agreement's implications for pandemic preparedness in Mexico, offering valuable insights for regional cooperation. This includes facilitating information sharing, joint research and development, and harmonization of regulations.

  • "The Urgency of Improving Pandemic Surveillance and Response": This concise analysis highlights the need for strengthened global systems for detecting and responding to emerging infectious disease threats. In conclusion, pandemic preparedness requires a comprehensive strategy that combines advanced technologies, strengthened public health infrastructure, and international collaboration.

  • “On the global importance of Latin America in AI governance”: This article argues Latin America could gain global importance in AI governance since it might (1) attract compute providers, (2) leverage its strong diplomatic tradition, (3) experience the emergence of societal-scale risks, (4) offer a strong pool of technical talent, and (5) enact impactful regulation. Each element opens up several possible implications and interventions to increase Latin America’s contribution to safe and beneficial AI. 

  Events presence

  • EAGx LatAm 2024,

    • Presentation:  “Global Catastrophic Risk Governance in Latin America: The Case of ORCG”

    • Workshop: “Tabletop Exercise: Food security in Argentina in an abrupt reduction in sunlight scenario (ASRS)”

  • Summit on Existential Security

    • Lightning talk: “5 Lessons from the EU AI Act”

  • EA Global Bay Area 2024 (Global Catastrophic Risks)

  • Made in Europe: Generating the ecosystem of trustworthy AI innovation (Future of Life Institute)

  • Social Impact of AI (TELSEC4TAI)

  • EAG London 2024

    • Panel: The Role of the Global South in Global Catastrophic Risk

  • Biosafety Beyond Borders: Unifying Biosafety and Biosecurity” (SBA-AMEXBIO)

  • Webinar “Innovation Beyond Frontiers” of Chemistry Institute of  UNAM, “Retrospective analysis of the response to COVID-19 and preparedness for future emergencies”

  • Cambridge Conference on Global Catastrophic Risk 2024

    • Presentation: “Latin America's role in Global Catastrophic Risk management: insights, opportunities, and challenges”

    • Poster:  “A Framework for a Forecasting-Based AI Risk Assessment”

  • European Digital Policy: where are we and where are we going? (CIDOB-Santander Future Leaders Forum)

  • Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety" Buenos Aires.

  Join us in building a safer and more resilient future. Your contribution to ORCG will help us address the full spectrum of global catastrophic risks and ensure that humanity is prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.

  Donate to ORCG today and help us protect humanity's future. Read here about our current plans.   

  In addition to financial contributions, you can support ORCG by:

  • Spreading the word: Share this Recap and our website (https://orcg.info) with your networks.

  • If you are an expert interested in our work: you can contribute by sending suggestions, providing feedback, and sharing academic and funding opportunities with us, among others (info@orcg.info).

  • Connecting us with potential partners: Introduce us to individuals or organizations who can support our work.

  Together, we can build a safer future for all.
  

Reports

1. Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS),  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11906.96969.

2. Artificial intelligence risk management in Spain, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18451.86562.

3. Proposal for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28217.75365.

4. Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25294.02886.

Papers 

1. Resilient food solutions to avoid mass starvation during a nuclear winter in Argentina, REDER Journal, Accepted, pending publication.

2. Systematic review of taxonomies of risks associated with artificial intelligence, Analecta Política https://doi.org/10.18566/apolit.v14n26.a08

3. The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI?, Journal IberamIA,  https://doi.org/10.4114/intartif.vol27iss73pp55-64

4. Operationalizing AI Global Governance Democratization, submitted to call for papers of Office of the Envoy of the Secretary General for Technology, Non-public document.

Policy brief and work documents

1. RCG Position paper: AI Act trilogue.

2. Operationalising the definition of highly capable AI.

3. PNRRD Argentina 2024-2030 chapter proposal “Scenarios for Abrupt Reduction of Solar Light”, *Published as an internal government document.

Collaborations

1. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 1: “To Think and Act for Future Generations”.

2. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 2: “Strengthening the International Response to Complex Global Shocks – An Emergency Platform” .

3. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 5: A Global Digital Compact — an Open, Free and Secure Digital Future for All.

4. [EPOCH]  Paper “AI capabilities can be significantly improved without expensive retraining”, published in arXiv.

Outreach

Web articles

1. Global catastrophic risks law approved in the United States.

2. Proposals for the AI Regulatory Sandbox in Spain.

3. A survey of concrete risks derived from Artificial Intelligence.

4. Spanish translation of “How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism's Limited Role”.

5. Biosafety in BSL-3, BSL-3+ and BSL-4 Laboratories: Mapping and Recommendations for Latin America.

Video

1. Presentation Food Security in Argentina in the event of an ASRS.

2. Presentation  Risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.

3. Presentation Detection and prevention of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala.

Infographics

1. Infographics of the Report food security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Reduction of Sunlight Scenario (ASRS).

2. Infographics report risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.

3. Infographics: report Proposals for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in Guatemala.

4. Infographics report: Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management.

Events

1. EAGx Berlín, Presentation “Regional Diversity in Global Catastrophic Risk and AI risk Management”, Guillem Bas.

2. CTS Ecuador, Presentation “Classification and analysis of risks derived from artificial intelligence” Monica Ulloa.

3. Workshop “Pluralism in Existential Risk Studies”, Oxford, Monica Ulloa.

4. Adevinta Spain Meetup, Barcelona, Presentation “AI Governance: Opportunities and Challenges”, Guillem Bas.

5. ESCT Colloquium, Colombia: “Measuring and valuing disasters: a path towards global resilience”, Mónica Ulloa.

Awards

1. Santander–CIDOB 35 under 35 list, Guillem Bas.
   

What are your next steps?

This year we will be focused on AI and the generation of risk register exercises for this area and other GCRs.

Is there anything others could help you with?

We invite you to send any questions and/or requests to info@orcg.info. You can contribute to the mitigation of Global Catastrophic Risks by donating.

Thank you very much Nuño for your contribution, we hope to continue improving the prioritization and management of GCRs in Spanish-speaking countries and we will be in contact to update you with promising advances in our work.

Hello Joel,
Thank you for taking the time to read our proposal, here our answers:

1- The most important paths are:

• Continue with the strategic partnership and collaborations. This includes working with different stakeholders in Spanish-speaking countries to introduce GCR areas in national risk plans, as has been done with Argentina, and continuing with other partnerships with institutions such as ALLFED, Simon Institute, etc.

• Seize the opportunity: Being GCR a neglected area, all the reports, articles, and other academic production in Spanish-speaking and with an emphasis on Latin America have a high probability of impact and reception, as we have verified in the development of our projects.

• Betting on our staff training: Our team comes from different academic areas and various countries such as Spain, Mexico, and Colombia. We have different approaches that have served the development of projects with an interdisciplinary perspective and have facilitated engagement with stakeholders. This has been particularly important when engaging with stakeholders keen on seeing views from the Global South, such as the UN.

• Evidence-Based Decision Making: With our publications and projects under development, we have detected that some areas are more promising in certain countries than others. We plan to use this knowledge to tailor our outreach strategies efficiently.

Our 95th-percentile version looks like

• Integrate the most promising themes of our four main areas into the Spanish-speaking countries in which the best opportunities are detected or in the process of renewing national risk management plans.

• Collaborations and partnerships flourish, resulting in an expansive network of allies who share our vision and contribute to our collective success.

• We've achieved remarkable growth and successful financial stability that will allow us to continue our work long-term, improve the team's and interested people's training, and develop workshops in different countries to achieve significant stakeholder acceptance.

• In this version, we have reached the Spanish-speaking community that works in risk management and the community, making them aware of the importance of longtermism and global catastrophic risks.

2.

Indeed, Jaime and Juan actively participate in the staff mentoring process, along with our advisers. We also have developed internal training modules, which could become training material for internal and external mentoring. So far, our training has successfully taken our staff from having little exposure to Global Catastrophic Risk studies to actively contributing to high-quality reports in a couple of months. We have little capacity to expand and grow because Jaime and Juan's time is limited, but this will remain a pillar of our organization.

3.

If we were to emphasize mentorship and movement-building as our primary goals, it could lead to significant transformations in how we operate. Here are some specific ways this could manifest:

• Structured Mentorship Programs: Our ongoing staff training has resulted in well-structured training modules endorsed by experts. These modules, along with recommended reading materials and resources from EA communities, 80000 hours, and others, could serve as the foundation for a mentorship program.

• Leadership Development and Talent Identification: Through previous recruitment processes, we've identified promising individuals within the Spanish-speaking effective altruism community. These individuals show a keen interest in advancing and leading in this field. Notably, our essay contest has been successful in spotting emerging talent.

• Sharing Resources Platform: Our website boasts the largest collection of Spanish articles on global catastrophic risks, and we're committed to expanding this repository. This rich content will undoubtedly be a valuable resource for learners from various backgrounds.

• Engaging the Community: We've successfully hosted events to introduce our reports and intend to continue doing so. Additionally, we're considering establishing platforms for talks at local universities and facilitating workshops for community participation.

• Collaborative Initiatives: Collaborative projects have proven effective in enhancing staff training. Working with experts from organizations like ALLFED and EPOCH has resulted in products like the ASRS and AI reports. Furthermore, we've contributed to a United Nations policy brief in collaboration with the Simon Institute.

It's important to note that we already play a pivotal role within our community. As the sole organization dedicated to nurturing experts in global catastrophic risks within the Spanish-speaking community, our impact can have a cascading effect because other people learn about the topic through our reports and receive mentorship from the experts we are forming.

It's unclear whether we should prioritize more community building over other work. We're open to considering the idea of securing additional resources to expand our efforts and launch more mentorship-focused programs.

4.

We are currently drafting a chapter on the ASRS for inclusion in Argentina's National Risk Reduction Plan for the period 2024-2030. Our objective is to contribute to more national plans across various Latin American countries, recognizing the unique opportunity to make a substantial impact. Given the region's geographical characteristics, Argentina and its neighboring countries hold pivotal roles in ensuring food security during scenarios such as nuclear winter and related scenarios.

Simultaneously, Spain is currently presiding over the European Council until the end of the year. We have established connections with an expert who will oversee discussions on regulating foundation models within the context of the EU AI Act in September. Additionally, we are in contact with a member of the European Parliament. Our intention is to maintain these connections and ensure that both individuals are well-informed about the latest standards in AI governance.

Shifting our focus to biological risks, we are working on a report for Guatemala. This aims to underscore the importance of monitoring emerging infectious diseases. The Latin American region holds significant potential for the emergence of epidemiological hotspots. Through this report, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of proactive measures in this regard.

Remain at your disposal for any further inquiries.