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NathanYoung avatarNathanYoung avatar
Nathan Young

@NathanYoung

Forecaster and Developer

https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung
$0total balance
$0charity balance
$0cash balance

$0 in pending offers

About Me

Forecaster at the Swift Centre. Building tools like Estimaker.app and Viewpoints.xyz . Let's make better decisions!

Projects

Eliciting Probability Trees

Outgoing donations

Calibration City
$10
8 months ago
The Base Rate Times
$100
over 1 year ago
VaccinateCA
$25
over 1 year ago
Holly Elmore organizing people for a frontier AI moratorium
$100
over 1 year ago

Comments

Calibration City
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

8 months ago

I asked @wasabipesto to sign up here because calibration city is something I wanted to exist and they built it! So I wanted to reward them for that.

Eliciting Probability Trees
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Thanks for the feedback.


What do you think about "What are this project's goals" section now?

On estimaker, thank you for the advice.

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

This feels good to me. I have done a little work with Ezra and I trust him to make good markets. Ezra, I thin you've got some markets up already. Could you link them?

Design and testing of broad-spectrum antivirals
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

What do you think would cound as a massive success from you lot?

Design and testing of broad-spectrum antivirals
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Yo @Austin how come manifold doesn't embed?

Design and testing of broad-spectrum antivirals
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Will they manufacture 20+ antiviral candidates? @Brian-Wang when would a good deadline be? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-panoplia-laboboritories-get-fu

General Support for the Center for AI Policy
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

So is the key goal here to pass federal legislation?

OPTIC F23
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Can you give me some goals where you'd think this was really successful?

The Base Rate Times
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Hey @vandemonian, how many views are you getting a month at the moment?

Long-Term Future Fund
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

I think it's really cool that you've posted this here. Feels like helping the ecosystem be better connected.

VaccinateCA
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

I buy the notion of retroactively sending signals to people who did great work. The community would be healthier, I think if we did this more often.

Holly Elmore organizing people for a frontier AI moratorium
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

It seems plausible to me that this could be really effective in giving some cover for slowing down. Good negotiation requires alternatives if negotiation breaks down. Current the AI orgs are playing ball but I want some pushback if they don't. So I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

The Base Rate Times
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

almost 2 years ago

I want this idea to be tested at greater scale. I think if we can build the processes here then other news orgs can use them. This seems like foundational work.

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

about 2 years ago

Surely I'd need to put all markets and all probs rather than just one?

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets
NathanYoung avatar

Nathan Young

about 2 years ago

Would you use this personally?

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Calibration City8 months agoproject donation10
Manifund Bank9 months agodeposit+10
The Base Rate Timesover 1 year agoproject donation100
VaccinateCAover 1 year agoproject donation25
Holly Elmore organizing people for a frontier AI moratoriumover 1 year agoproject donation100
Manifund Bankover 1 year agodeposit+125
Manifund Bankalmost 2 years agodeposit+100