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NunoSempere avatarNunoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere

@NunoSempere

regrantor

Researcher & forecaster

https://nunosempere.com

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This is a donation to this user's regranting budget, which is not withdrawable.

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$8,276total balance
$5,201charity balance
$3,075cash balance

$0 in pending offers

About Me

Cofounder and Head of Foresight at [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/).


Below by notes for a previous regranting program:

I don't yet know what I will do with this money. Some threads that I am considering:

  • Grants whose appeal other funding sources can't understand.

  • Thiel-style funding: Grants to formidable people outside the EA community for doing things that they are intrinsically motivated to do and which might have a large positive effect on the world.

  • Targetted grants in the forecasting sphere, particularly around more experimentation.

  • Giving a large chunk of it to Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (https://riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com/) in particular.

  • Bets of the form "I am quite skeptical that you would do [some difficult thing], but if you do, happy for you to take my money, and otherwise I will take yours".

  • Bounties: like the above, but less adversarial, because you do get the amount if you succeed, but don't lose anything if you don't.

  • Non-AI longtermism.

  • Grants to the Spanish and German-speaking communities.

I am also considering doing things a bit different from what the current EA ecosystem currently does, just for the information value. For example:

  • Giving feedback at depth on applications that people pitch me on

    • The rationale is that this feedback could improve people's later career paths. I think that other funding orgs don't do this because they get overwhelmed with applications. But I'm not overwhelmed at the moment!

  • Putting bounties on people referring applications

  • Using Manifold prediction markets on the success of grants as a factor for evaluation

    • Requires grantees willing to be more transparent, though

That said, I'm generally seeking to do "the optimal thing", so if I get some opportunity that I think is excellent I'll take it, even if it doesn't fall into the above buckets.

Also, I guess that $50k is not that large an amount, so I'm either going to have to be fairly strategic, or get more money :)

As for myself personally, I'm maybe best known for starting Samotsvety Forecasting (samotsvety.org/)—an excellent forecasting team, for being a prolific EA Forum poster (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere?sortedBy=top)—since emigrated to nunosempere.com/blog, or for having done some work at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute on topics of estimation and evaluation.

Projects

Forecasting global disasters
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025
Make ALERT happen

Outgoing donations

Keep Apart Research Going: Global AI Safety Research & Talent Pipeline
$50
over 1 year ago
Orexin Pilot Experiment for Reducing Sleep Need
$50
over 1 year ago
Future-Proofing Forecasting: Easy Open-Source Solution
$50
almost 2 years ago
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025
$50
almost 2 years ago
Play money prediction markets
$50
about 2 years ago
CEEALAR (EA Hotel) Needs a New Roof
$350
about 2 years ago
The Base Rate Times
$1500
over 2 years ago
Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales
$12500
almost 3 years ago
Update Big List of Cause Candidates
$1000
almost 3 years ago
A Lumenator Company, or: A More Ambitious Life Trajectory
$5000
almost 3 years ago
Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales
$20000
about 3 years ago
About NuñoBy Nuño21

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Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Fund Sentinel for Q1-20259 months agoproject donation+2000
Forecasting global disasters9 months agoproject donation+705
Fund Sentinel for Q1-202510 months agoproject donation+100
Manifund Bank11 months agowithdraw50000
Forecasting global disasters11 months agoproject donation+50000
Keep Apart Research Going: Global AI Safety Research & Talent Pipelineover 1 year agoproject donation50
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+150
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+20
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+100
Orexin Pilot Experiment for Reducing Sleep Needover 1 year agoproject donation50
Manifund Bankover 1 year agowithdraw15570
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+1800
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+1000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+70
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025over 1 year agoproject donation+10000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+1000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+25
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+200
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+500
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+400
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+25
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+250
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Manifund Bankalmost 2 years agowithdraw24910
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+2000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+800
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+50
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+350
<89b29643-1793-4dec-8713-59b3c13edb86>almost 2 years agoprofile donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+15
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+5000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+29
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+500
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+10000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+200
Future-Proofing Forecasting: Easy Open-Source Solutionalmost 2 years agoproject donation50
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation50
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+50
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+1000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+200
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+500
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+1000
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+500
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+200
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+500
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+100
Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025almost 2 years agoproject donation+1000
Play money prediction marketsabout 2 years agoproject donation50
CEEALAR (EA Hotel) Needs a New Roofabout 2 years agoproject donation350
Make ALERT happenabout 2 years agoproject donation+216
Make ALERT happenabout 2 years agoproject donation+100
Make ALERT happenabout 2 years agoproject donation+50
Make ALERT happenabout 2 years agoproject donation+100
Manifund Bankabout 2 years agodeposit+700
Manifund Bankover 2 years agodeposit+5001
Manifund Bankover 2 years agoreturn bank funds10000
The Base Rate Timesover 2 years agoproject donation1500
Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globalesalmost 3 years agoproject donation12500
Manifund Bankalmost 3 years agowithdraw18000
Make ALERT happenalmost 3 years agoproject donation+950
Make ALERT happenalmost 3 years agoproject donation+2050
Update Big List of Cause Candidatesalmost 3 years agoproject donation1000
Make ALERT happenalmost 3 years agoproject donation+5000
Make ALERT happenalmost 3 years agoproject donation+5000
Make ALERT happenalmost 3 years agoproject donation+5000
A Lumenator Company, or: A More Ambitious Life Trajectoryalmost 3 years agoproject donation5000
Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globalesabout 3 years agoproject donation20000
Manifund Bankabout 3 years agodeposit+50000