As far as I can tell Manifold doesn't offer the feature of making private predictions that only you and your friends can see and participate in, like for example predicting wether your friend will stick to their diet. These are the kind of predictions we want to support, where unlike Manifold, they are about personal events and only your friends can see and participate in. What we are envisioning is more of a social media centered around personal predictions and less of a public prediction market.