Some quick thoughts on this initiative:

I like the Sentinel minutes, which I read weekly. So far I think all the value I've gotten from the minutes has been from learning interesting things rather than from me making different decisions. However, I think that e.g. if the Avian flu got bad enough that I should do something about it, I'd likely learn that earlier than I would otherwise thanks to Sentinel.

The emergency response team is a higher variance bet, but I actually think it makes a lot of sense. I and the people around me often err in the direction of too much research and analysis, and not enough action.

Team:

• I've greatly appreciated Nuño's content over the years. My donation is largely a vote of confidence in Nuño, or to be more specific: "I'm excited to see what Nuño does next, and want him to have a shot at it".

• I don't know Rai.

• I know Gavin, and like Arb's stuff. Note also that Gavin cowrote this sequence.

• I like Raymond as a person, though I'm less familiar with his outputs.

• I don't know Nathan personally but I've followed him online for a while, and he appears earnest and entrepreneurial.

• I only know of Sol Novak from some of their online writing, and I feel a bit less excited about them. I'm not very confident though, eg the funding memo says "known for being able to execute well in fast-paced novel environments" and I don't know what that refers to, it's the sort of thing that could change my mind.

• I know of Tolga from his presence on Twitter commenting on AI, which I've overall disliked. Though note that he's on the foresight team which will prioritize shorter-horizon questions (and is a Superforecaster / part of Samotsvety) so maybe his high-level AI takes don't matter that much.

• I don't know Mathias, Vivian, Vidur, or Lisa.

Overall I'm very excited about Sentinel. I encourage other people to donate.