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Michael Dickens

@mdickens

https://mdickens.me/
$5,000total balance
$5,000charity balance
$0cash balance

$0 in pending offers

Outgoing donations

Comments

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Michael Dickens

about 12 hours ago

I am a fan of CAIP as one of the few AI policy orgs that explicitly focuses on x-risk and has a concrete plan for reducing risk. I wrote ~500 words of commentary here: https://mdickens.me/2024/11/18/where_i_am_donating_in_2024/#center-for-ai-policy

Due to my limited budget, I am not donating to CAIP, but I would encourage donations to it, especially by foundations/grantmakers.

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Michael Dickens

10 days ago

I wrote [here](https://mdickens.me/2024/11/18/where_i_am_donating_in_2024/#ai-safety-and-governance-fund) about my donation plans and why I like this plan:

Pushing for x-risk-relevant regulation is the most promising sort of intervention right now. But we don’t have much data on what sorts of messaging are most effective. This project intends to give us that data.

  • Mikhail Samin, who runs the org, has a good track record of work on AI safety projects (from what I can see).

  • Mikhail has reasonable plans for what to do with this information once he gets it. (He shared his plans with me privately and asked me not to publish them.)

  • The project has room for more funding, but it shouldn’t take much money to accomplish its goal.

  • The project received a speculation grant from the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF) and is reasonably likely to get more funding, but (1) it might not; (2) even if it does, I think it’s useful to diversify the funding base; (3) I generally like SFF grants and I don’t mind funging SFF dollars.

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Michael Dickens

about 2 months ago

What is the case for impact for this? At a glance my guess is it would increase x-risk—a better explanation of AI accelerating AI R&D would (marginally) make people want to do that more, which shortens timelines / increases the probability of a fast takeoff.

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Michael Dickens

2 months ago

Actually the link worked fine when I pasted it into Discord, it just didn't work in my browser

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Michael Dickens

2 months ago

@PauseAI-US The discord link says "invite invalid" for me

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Michael Dickens

2 months ago

As a donor, how should I think about whether to donate to PauseAI Global vs. PauseAI US? I would like both to have more money but I only have limited budget. Ideally I would donate to a unified org and you can then spend the money where it's most needed, but I assume you can't do that because PauseAI Global and PauseAI US are legally separate entities.

Right now I'm thinking PauseAI US has the advantage that most big AI companies are headquartered in the US, so protests and lobbying here should be more impactful.

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Michael Dickens

2 months ago

I still have questions but I will resume this discussion on the new post so it's more visible

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Michael Dickens

2 months ago

@Holly_Elmore I'm not sure I understand. Are they the same org structure but different legal entities? Does PauseAI operate outside the US? The website doesn't seem to make a distinction between PauseAI and PauseAI US.

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Michael Dickens

3 months ago

How do you plan on finding an audience? (Sounds like MTurk or something?) And how do you determine which messages are more successful than others?

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Michael Dickens

3 months ago

I chose to donate through Manifund instead of directly to PauseAI, even though it was kind of a pain, because I believe Manifund is providing a useful service. The grant requests that orgs submit through Manifund tend to have valuable information that 's not included on their websites or in fundraising materials. Manifund is doing a good job of eliciting decision-relevant info that I can't get elsewhere.

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Michael Dickens

3 months ago

Attempting to build AGI is a bad idea because it increases extinction risk. I would strongly recommend against funding this.

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Michael Dickens

3 months ago

What are the main features PlayMoney has that Manifold lacks?

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Michael Dickens

4 months ago

Public advocacy seems likely to be the best thing on the margin to prevent extinction.

  • Technical alignment research is (a) less neglected and (b) unlikely to solve alignment in time.

  • Well-done advocacy directed at policymakers is possibly better, but it's unclear what efforts are most useful, and it's less neglected.

  • PauseAI is the only game in town for public advocacy. At this point I think it's too early to say if they're doing a good job, but I think it's a good EV bet.

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Michael Dickens

5 months ago

@Holly_Elmore When do you expect the new project to be up? I want to donate, ideally before Manifund's EA Community Choice ends on Sept 3. (I also intend to donate some non-Community Choice money but that can wait.)

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Michael Dickens

5 months ago

This was a high quality writeup. Previously I was unsure about the impact of Lightcone but this writeup persuaded me that Lightcone is probably upstream of a significant amount of useful AI safety work.

I'm not convinced that Lightcone is the best marginal use of my donations. I may donate more in the future if I become convinced. For now, I'm donating $100 as a vote of confidence.

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Testing and spreading messages to reduce AI x-risk10 days agoproject donation5000
Manifund Bank10 days agodeposit+10000
PauseAI US 2025 through Q229 days agoproject donation5000
Manifund Bankabout 2 months agowithdraw5000
Manifund Bankabout 2 months agodeposit+10000
PauseAI local communities - volunteer stipends3 months agoproject donation5000
Manifund Bank3 months agodeposit+5000
Testing and spreading messages to reduce AI x-risk3 months agoproject donation50
PauseAI local communities - volunteer stipends4 months agoproject donation451
Lightcone Infrastructure4 months agoproject donation100
Lightcone Infrastructure5 months agoproject donation100
Manifund Bank5 months agodeposit+700
Manifund Bank5 months agodeposit+1