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Metaculus x Givewell Forecasting Tournament

Science & technologyGlobal health & development
Leonard avatar

Leonard Barrett

ActiveGrant
$2,500raised
$5,000funding goal

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Project summary

GiveWell’s mission is to find the charities that deliver the greatest impact per dollar spent to help donors decide where to give. To support this, they publish forecasts on expected grant outcomes. Now, Metaculus and GiveWell invite you to forecast and share your reasoning to help GiveWell help others in a tournament with cash prizes for the winners.

Metaculus will share high-quality comments with GiveWell after the submission deadline. Prizes will be awarded in January 2025.

How will this funding be used?

The current prize pool is as follows:

  • The max award for a single participating commenter is $1,000

  • Ten prizes will be distributed as follows: 

    • The 1st place comment wins $300

    • 2nd & third place comments each win $275

    • The 4th through 10th place comments each receive $200

Donating to this Manifund page will increase the prize pool, in a method decided by the Metaculus team.

Note: Employees of GiveWell, their immediate family members, and those living in the same household are not eligible for prizes.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

The Metaculus team is running this forecasting tournament in collaboration with Givewell. Metaculus has run a large number of tournaments in the past — see here for more examples and more details.

Note: this page was quickly set up by @saulmunn, and doesn't necessarily faithfully represent the views of Metaculus.

Comments2Donations4
donated $250
RyanKidd avatar

Ryan Kidd

about 1 month ago

I like Metaculus and GiveWell. Incentivising forecasts of charity impact seems like a good way to improve charitable giving.

donated $1,000
Austin avatar

Austin Chen

about 2 months ago

Approving this grant; as I wrote on the EA Forum:

This looks awesome! $1k struck me as a pretty modest prize pool given the importance of the questions; I'd love to donate $1k towards increasing this prize, if you all would accept it (or possibly more, if you think it would be useful.)

I'd suggest structuring this as 5 more $200 prizes (or 10 $100 honorable mentions) rather than doubling the existing prizes to $400 -- but really it's up to you, I'd trust your allocations here.

Special thanks to Saul for setting up this page on Metaculus's behalf!