Project summary

The scale, class, and severity of disagreement in alignment is not that unusual, historically speaking. What lessons can we learn from this?

What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?

What does the history of science have to say about the state of disagreement in alignment today?

I think a good deal, much of it pessimistic e.g. in thermodynamics people disagreed for decades-centuries over the caloric and kinetic theory of heat, even after discovering some of the laws of thermodynamics. One side, the kinetic theory of heat, had good qualitative argument that heat was due to motion.

But that was not a quantitative argument. And the areas that could be precisely measured and modelled at the time, the two theories were isomorphic. Which is a striking and underdiscussed explanation of persistent disagreements--humans want mechanistic theories that fit the data in science, even when good qualitative arguments exist.

Which is partly why qualitative arguments for doom are not well accepted.

In the case of thermodynamics, what settled the dispute were new techniques opening up entirely new regimes (e.g. high temperatures, phase transitions, better thermometers, heat engines etc.). These forced drive the development of better experiments and better theory which supported the kinetic theory of heat.

There are other examples like this. Such as the development of the theory of evolution, the special theory of relativity or the discovery of the atom. Comparing and contrasting these with alignment would take up the initial part of the work of this project, and if I took more time than the minimum, I would look at more cases. Such as the development of Newtonian physics or the shift from alchemy to chemistry or the birth of statistical mechanics.

How will this funding be used?

To pay for my living costs for two weeks to two months. I expect this project can be done in less than a month, but hey, maybe not.

The minimum amount is for two weeks. The maximum amount is for two months.

But if I get a collaborator, which I may, then I could use some of the funding to pay for their time, too.

Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?

There's just me at the moment. I have read much of what I need already: histories of thermodynamics, evolution, special and general relativity, historical correspondences, some histories of Newtonian mechanics and so on.

I also have a master's in physics, and I worked as project lead of AIsafety.info for a couple of years. So I have the technical knowledge to understand what I am reading and writing about.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?

The history of science is more complex than I expect and/or it takes more time to synthesize the research than I assume.

How much money have you raised in the last 12 months, and from where?

None for myself.