Write a good primer on political change.

Longer description of your proposed project

As described in the ACX Quests and Requests post (and echoed in the Teddy Collins 80,000 hours interview in the Career Advice section), there is a surprising lack of useful primers for political change. In an attempt to fill this gap, I will write a ~10,000 word primer that explains, with relevant examples, at least 3 paths to policy change on the federal level. These three paths are: 1) Secret Congress; 2) Executive Action; 3) External Pressure (each of these will be explained in greater detail). In addition to including relevant examples, potentially including examples where I have direct work experience, I will also map a high level theory of change and strategy for a potentially high-impact policy change. The most likely example would be mapping out a strategy for political change for the Coalition to Modify NOTA; however, I may eventually select a different policy change. Thus, the primer will also include a small sample playbook for one discrete policy change.

Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this

I have 13 years of direct experience working in public policy. I worked for ~6 years as a staffer in the U.S. House of Representatives (2010-2016) in a range of roles. This time covered 3 full Congresses, during which the office I worked in was ranked the 1st, 8th, and 11th most effective lawmaking office by the Legislative Effectiveness Project (since renamed the Center for Effective Lawmaking). This project was created by two political scientists to quantify the impact of lawmakers by categorizing the scope of their bills (measured by the proxy of mentions in Congressional Quarterly) and tracking the status of these bills. I don't think this proxy measurement is the best way to truly measure legislative effectiveness, but I still think it has value (and I have not ever made any effort to create a better measurement, so I appreciate that someone has at least tried).

One datapoint that I find amusing to demonstrate my qualifications: I was awarded The Order of Civil Merit (Knight’s Cross) by the Spanish Government in recognition of “extraordinary service for the benefit of Spain.” This extraordinary service consisted of me drafting and shepherding a bill through Congress that was of importance to the Spanish government (the bill was not at all impactful, but it was still a relatively rare accomplishment—only the 8th time in U.S. history). I am not listed on the Wikipedia page for the award [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_Civil_Merit] because I am not noteworthy and I received a lower order; however, there are several dictators (Saddam Hussein, Islam Karimov, Habib Bourguiba) on the noted recipient list, though none that have appeared on the Dictator Book Club list so far).

I have also worked for ~7 years in an advocacy position at a non-profit, where I have contributed to and led efforts to change multiple executive branch regulations and secure the passage of legislative changes. As an example, research I worked on has been cited in recent regulatory changes related to the student loan repayment system.

Other ways I can learn about you

I occasionally write blog posts (https://thebrownbarge.substack.com/); I have a LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spencer-orenstein-365159127/); because all Congressional staff salaries are published you can dig through pdfs to see how much money I made as a Congressional staffer (https://www.house.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/2016q4_singlevolume.pdf)

How much money do you need?

$1,500. I estimate it will take me ~20 hours and I am valuing my time at the implied rate from my current DC public policy job.

Links to any supporting documents or information

Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for

I am defining success as a primer on policy change that exists as a useful resource for individuals interested in changing policy, either as part of their career or as a volunteer. I am assuming the primer would be published on ACX, giving it a very high probability (~95) of reaching a reasonably sized audience of people who are interested in high-impact policy change.

I am giving myself an ~85% chance of overall success. I am ~95% confident that I have the necessary knowledge to write a useful primer. I am ~75% confident that I have the necessary writing skills to convey this information in a useful (and engaging) manner. I am ~90% confident that if I got the grant I would feel sufficiently compelled to prioritize this project.