Project summary

A host of trader tools to enhance the forecasting ecosystem. I will work to build and maintain working versions of the following tools based on interest:

Manifold Tools so far. Mostly just an encrypted API key-storage handler, and a front-end mockup for the recurring markets tool. API key handler is 85% complete. Recurring markets front-end is 75% complete, and the backend that will handle the scheduling is 10% complete.

Proposed Manifold-Centric Tools:

1. Managram Subscriptions* (25hrs)

   • Allows you to set up recurring mana payments

   • Would encourage more uses for mana and mana-funded microproducts to be developed

   • *UPDATE: Managrams are going away. I will reach out to Manifold about whether they would be willing to make something like Manifold Subscriptions possible.

2. Recurring Markets: (15hrs)

   • A web app view to allow market creators to easily create and maintain recurring markets on Manifold

   • I've already started working on this. (See image above)

3. Manifold Arbitrage Bot* (20hrs)

   • Tag this bot in the comments of one market with the link to another market to set up automatic arbitraging between the two for your account.

   • *UPDATE: @wasabipesto has wisely pointed out that being required to publicize one's arbitrages is not ideal, so this likely operate privately.

4. Committee-Resolved Markets (and other mechanisms for someone other than the creator to resolve a market) (20hrs)

   • A tool for markets to be resolved by multiple users, consensus, majority, etc.

   • Can give various permissions to certain users (who aren't a mod) to resolve your markets.

5. Manifold Commitment Market Manager: (35hrs) (or 20hrs if Recurring Markets is ranked above this project)

   • An extension of recurring markets, this will allow users to set personal goals that they want to achieve. Easily have recurring commitment markets created on their behalf based on their goals.

   • The weekly commitments will ideally dynamically adjust based on the user's progress and try to get users the best deal on their commitments (i.e. set smart limit orders that are likely to get filled).

   • I will also explore infrastructure for easy reporting of goal progress (which attracts more traders), like SMS or WhatsApp.

   • This idea builds on my learnings building Emile.chat, a chatbot for weekly bedtime goals that adjusts to your progress

6. Super Secret Private Manifold Markets (20hrs)

   • Manifold has discontinued private markets, but what if they could be private out in the open?

   • This idea is to create a tool whereby private groups and markets can be created in a way that are readable on the original site, but encrypted gibberish on Manifold

   • The markets could be unlisted on Manifold, but still make use of their many trading tools.

   • I could possibly figure out how to make a Chrome extension that would allow you to see the private markets you're privy to right on Manifold itself.

7. AI Resolution Criteria Creator (15hrs)

   • I have several successful markets that I would not have had the confidence to run had it not been for a strong, exhaustive AI-written resolution criteria.

   • This will be a tool either built as a Chrome extension or a separate site that will auto-create strong resolution criteria based on a Manifold question text.

8. AI Market Creator and Resolver (25hrs) (37hrs with add-on)

   • A bit more controversial, I believe there is a place for wholly AI-managed markets.

   • If this tool is funded, I will build a tool that allows you to manage a market creating and resolving agent that uses tools like SearchGPT to resolve markets (all of this disclosed in the market description, of course)

   • Add-on: connect this to Twitter or Manifold for even more seamless transitions from internet debates to relevant prediction markets

9. Manifold Alerts (@manifoldmaven enhancement) (10hrs)

   • various improvements to my @manifoldmaven twitter bot

10. *Manifold Loan Infrastructure (30hrs)

    • A tool for managing lending and borrowing mana to other Manifold users

    • *UPDATE: Managrams are going away, which was the primary way loans were conducted. This project seems DOA unless Manifold mentions that they think it would still be doable and are interested.

11. Manifold Tipping (17hrs)

    • A chrome extension that introduces an interface that makes tipping easier and displays all tips a comment has received

    Proposed Non-Manifold Forecasting Tools:

12. Predictor's Digest (30hrs)

    • A news site for the biggest changes in the most important prediction markets

    • Essentially a dedicated website for the types of updates that my twitter bot @manifoldmaven tweets out, with AI summaries of that actually new behind the prediction market change.

    • *UPDATE: An MVP of this could build off of my @manifoldmaven Twitter bot and be a daily or weekly newsletter digest.

13. Personal Prediction Tracker* (17hrs)

    • Most things that we might like to be better at predicting are not necessarily something we would want to create a prediction market for, but we can still learn from tracking personal predictions.

    • This would allow for one to very easily note down a quick prediction and probability for later evaluation

    • I'm envisioning folks able to make many personal predictions a day to quickly see what aspects of their life they are well calibrated about and about which aspects they tend to be over or under-optimistic.

    • *UPDATE: as @wasabipesto kindly pointed out, Fatebook exists and is awesome! If this project is voted highly, I will dedicate my time to a few ideas for Fatebook add-ons that would round out my ideas for a personal prediction manager:

      • Even more frictionless input and review:

        • Create a prediction with a single blob of text (AI pulls out date, probability, and prediction)

        • A quick-resolve feature for mobile via swiping

        • A quick update feature to quickly scroll and update your predictions

      • Fatebook on WhatsApp??

      • More qualitative views and insights from past Fatebook predictions

      • Auto-tagging

14. Kalshi API Manager (50hrs)

    • Tools for Kalshi users to set up more advanced betting strategies

15. Project Predictor* (~~15~~hrs) (5hrs)

    • A project management tool with a built-in forecasting tool for getting better at predicting project timelines

    • I already have a self-built project management tool. This would just involve adding timelines to this:

    • *UPDATE: Thanks to Fatebook existing, I think it will be a lot easier to implement this and have downgraded the timeline for this to be completed to 5hrs!

      

    • This would also be built on top of the personal prediction tracker.

16. Additional projects added based on interest

What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?

The goals are to build as many of these products as possible based on mine and the community's interest.

How will this funding be used?

I will work for one hour for every $50 of funding. I will work on the top voted project that has full funding (based on estimated time for completion) until it is completed (or until time spent exceeds 50% of the estimated time budget), then move to the second-most voted tool. I will continue until 15% of the funding is drawn down.

I will use the last 15% of funding to conduct maintenance and make improvements on all completed projects over the course of the next year.

The final estimate for finding the hours dedicated to each project came out to around $17,000.

Project priority will be determined by weighted ranked-choice voting, with each voter getting weight in proportion to the amount of matching funding brought in. (I am open to other, better ways of prioritization. For example, I think mini kickstarters for each tool would be a better way of doing things... )

I will work until all funded hours are accounted for. In the unlikely event that all projects are completed before this funding runs out, I will keep it as bonus for finishing early or pay myself to work on more similar projects or maintenance.

I do not expect to be able to spend more than 10 hours/week on this.

Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?

It's just me, a chatbot builder/founder turned full stack developer (with help from Claude). Previous builds include Emile.chat, a chatbot that's been helping a small number of folks get to bed earlier since 2016.

Last year I created @manifoldmaven, a Twitter bot that tweets when a popular market moves by more than 35%.

I've also built a few arbitrage bots with the Manifold API, including a bot that bet Manifold markets toward PredictIt's odds during the 2022 Mid-terms to devastating effect when it turned out PredictIt was way off, and another bot that bet on Manifold markets of Brazilian soccer matches based on a sports odds API.

I have begun building full stack Firebase react web apps with help from Claude, and have been successful building tools for my own use with full login, database, and Firebase functions.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?

The more this project is funded, the more tools on this list can be built. This project will be a complete failure if no projects on the list are funded enough to give me the time to work on them to completion. In that event, I will still hold a project priority vote.

Another failure mode is underestimation of the length of time it will take to complete each project. If I've reached the time budget for a project and have not finished it, I will work 30% more time for free before moving on to the next project.

A third form of failure would be if some projects can be worked on within my time budget, but none of the ones that funders have voted to prioritize. This should be something funders understand when choosing to only partially fund a large project.

What other funding are you or your project getting?

None, but I may work on any of these projects for free in my own time before funding is secured or after funding is depleted. I may consider spinning each tool idea into a micro-kickstarter for extra funding.