Project summary

We've started making an app for making predictions on personal future events that matter to you and you friends. In the app you can compete for low brier score clout, and benefit from collective intelligence for better decision making.

Compared to Metaculus, I believe this has greater potential in engaging a wider audience outside of less-wrong readers as it allows users to:

• bet on personal matters that directly impact their lives

• compete for low brier score clout with their friends instead of internet strangers

If successful, this app would increase the amount of probabilistic reasoning in the world as well as help normalize prediction markets and thus enable more rational decision-making across the board.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

• We successfully made and published OddsR (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/oddsr-the-dare-game/id1622441703, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kirabeans.oddsr) together (Liam joined later during the project)

• Theo Sechopoulos, MIT CS and CogSci, ex-Google

• Liam self-taught 16-year old programmer

How will the funding be used?

This money will be given directly to Liam as a salary/stipend. I have a few other commitments so this funding would really accelerate this app being built, as it will guarantee that Liam who is already working on it is stays committed for the long run over other paid opportunities.